Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Charlotte Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professoer at Wright State and author of the said unemployment increases will continue at their acceleratex pace into the thirfd quarter ofthis year. The Dayton Metropolitamn Statistical Area, which includex Montgomery, Greene, Miami and Preble counties, is projectesd to lose 6,000 to 7,000 jobs in the third quarter. That would drop employmenty to 373,900, down from 380,400 in the first quarter of the a 2percent decline.
The hardest-hity area is one the Dayton area has longrelied on, “Manufacturing employment will fall substantially,” Traynor Forecasts from the report show employment in the sector falling from 42,3000 in the first quarter of this year to 36,10p0 by the third quarter, a nearlgy 15 percent drop. Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’rt spending. They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expected to Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,100 by the thirdf quarter, down from 40,000 in the first a 2 percent drop.
Service which includes financial service, business utilities and leisure service, is projected to decreasre to 324,200 by the third down from 326,700 in the first a nearly 1 percent decline. “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasanr time forthe region,” Traynor Construction employment is expected to rise as a part of seasonal employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the firsgt quarter, but that is 1,000 jobs fewedr than the same time periox last year. One area of employment that isn’tt expected to be hit hard is healtnh care.
In fact, Traynor said he expects health care to add some jobs by thethirdf quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,300 in the first He said the rate of decline in gross domestic product will slow, but remainn negative through the third quarter and maybe into the fourt quarter of this year. Even when GDP does becomd positive again, it will take some time for employmenft to pick up becausw it is a lagginfg indicator of economic Traynor said there is a great deal of uncertaintyu still on thenational level, as businessees try to determine the impacgt of government actions. Traynor said the problem of high unemployment is not going awayanytime soon.
“Thix is something we’re going to be living with for quitwea while, well into next year,” he said.